Results from cross-regional research Climate Change Projects

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Published: 27 October 2006

Results from cross-regional research Climate Change Projects

Results from a range of climate change adaptation projects have shown that the costs from climate change will hit across a large number of sectors, including water, health, ecosystems, planning and infrastructure.

The projects - announced by Defra and the devolved administrations in 2004 - looked at a range of specific interests, including:

· tourism

· planning, land use & the built environment

· business

· water resources and the countryside & rural economy

Two other projects were methodological in nature and looked at quantifying the costs of climate change impacts and at reviewing adaptation options & strategies.

Climate Change and Environment Minister Ian Pearson welcomed the results of the £400,000 research programme, saying it brought the Government closer to understanding the enormous range of impacts climate change will have across different sectors and areas of the UK and the depth of further wok needed to develop full adaptation policies.

Mr Pearson said the projects had shown that climate change was often not the primary driver for changes in behaviour and that any successful adaptation policy needed to consider this. But they had also shown that in rural areas diversifying economies will help reduce vulnerability to climate change.

He said:

"Organisations including my Department, local authorities, tourist boards, water companies and the farming sector will all benefit from these important projects which will help us plan for and adapt to climate change.

Adaptation is occurring and awareness is increasing on the need to adapt to climate change and the fact that costs from climate change will hit across a large number of sectors including water, infrastructure, health, ecosystems and planning.

The studies will add to the evidence base which is needed to design effective adaptation responses at a national, local and regional level."

Findings:

· The pilot project - carried out by Sustainability North West - looked at the effects of climate change and tourism in the region

o The report found that extreme weather conditions associated with anticipated climate change scenarios was likely to lead to an increase in erosion in the Lake District National Park, along with an increase in visitor numbers

· The risk of fire in the Peak District is set to rise during hotter, drier summers, but that generally at present other factors were more likely to affect tourist numbers than climate change

· The business project, carried out by Risk Solutions, looked at the potential impacts of climate change on supermarkets and the rail industry

o The study found that climate change was not generally accounted for in supermarkets policy and was perceived as having little impact in the short-term

· However, producers faced far greater stresses and needed to at least look at the potential of diversification into new cropping regimes as well as facing up to new pests & diseases and strains on water reserves

· In the railway sector, the report stressed the industry was at risk from extreme weather patterns which could cause rails to buckle, points to fail and flooding to wash out routes

o At present, the regulated nature of investment in the industry and a focus on cost reduction, makes consideration of climate change in decision making by Network Rail, train operators and rolling stock providers very difficult

o In both industries, lack of specific information about the likely impacts to their businesses, at a localised level, is also a barrier to decision-making

· The water project, carried out by HR Wallingford Ltd, showed that climate change will have a significant impact on water resources available for water supply, agriculture and the environment over the next 30-100 years:

o Although climate change is already included in current water company plans, the project team recommended refinements to a range of policies related to water resources planning, drought planning and land use planning

o There will be a significant increase in severe single season droughts across the UK and there will be changes in the nature of multi-season droughts, such as the current drought in the South East of England, by the 2050s

o In future, consecutive dry winters like 2004/5 and 2005/6 will be accompanied by much drier summers presenting a more significant threat to public water supplies

o Consideration of climate change should be central to the implementation of the new statutory water resources plans, drought plans and the Water Framework Directive

· The Rural project, carried out by Land Use Consultants in Glasgow, suggested that many currently prosperous rural communities could in the future be at greater risk as a result of climate change, whilst some peripheral rural areas that are already reliant on limited economic sectors, could become even more fragile in the future:

o It urged Government policy-makers to consider how adaptation could be integrated across all rural policy sectors

o It suggested that adaptation could be a useful tool for delivering aspirations for rural and farm diversification and advised a cautious approach to promoting tourism in areas that are particularly vulnerable to climate change

o Climate change needs to be mainstreamed into all aspects of rural planning - including transport, tourism, affordable housing and biodiversity protection, in order to ensure adaptation forms part of integrated and sustainable rural development

· For the planning and built environment project Land Use Consultants in London considered the effects climate change would have for development in the growth areas of the south-east of England:

o The study included a literature review of the likely impacts climate change would have, considered potential climate change risks and adaptation measures at three development sites, and concluded that planners were more likely to focus on climate mitigation than adaptation

o A guidance document, Adapting to climate change impacts - A good practice guide for sustainable communities, has been produced to take planners and developers through the process of incorporating adaptation measures into new developments

o The South East, London and East of England Climate Change Partnerships contributed to funding the project, and will be involved in disseminating training materials linked to the guidance

· Metroeconomica carried out a study of the costs and benefits of climate change associated with different sectors:

o This is one of the first studies to apply costing methods to sectors on a microscale

o A range of costs were found associated with summer deaths, flooding and infrastructure damage, though some benefits were also perceived with increased tourism, reduced winter heating bills and reduced winter deaths

o The study also attempted to compare costs of the 2003 and 1995 hot summers.

· The Tyndall Centre with Cranfield and Southampton Universities produced a literature review of adaptation actions that are already happening in the UK, and an associated database of examples:

o It concluded that adaptation is occurring, awareness is increasing, but greater coordination of actions is required, particularly through new Government policies

Further information:

Defra: Adapting to climate change – Cross regional Research

Land Use Consultants in Glasgow

Adapting to climate change impacts - A good practice guide for sustainable communities (scroll down)

Action in the UK - The UK Climate Change Programme

UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP)

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Sustainability North West

Risk Solutions

HR Wallingford Ltd

South East Climate Change Partnership

Metroeconomica