Published: 07 January 2008
Global temperatures 2008: another Top Ten Year
Although 2008 is set to be cooler globally than recent years say Met Office and University of East Anglia climate scientists, it is still forecast to be one of the top ten warmest years.
Each January the Met Office, in conjunction with the University of East Anglia, issues a forecast of the global surface temperature for the coming year.
The forecast takes into account known contributing factors, such as:
· El Nino and La Nina
· increasing greenhouse gas concentrations
· the cooling influences of industrial aerosol particles
· solar effects and
· natural variations of the oceans
Met Office forecast for global temperature for 2008
Global temperature for 2008 is expected to be 0.37 degree C above the long-term (1961-1990) average of 14.0 degree C, the coolest year since 2000 when the value was 0.24 degree C
For 2008, the development of a strong La Nina in the tropical Pacific Ocean will limit the warming trend of the global climate.
The current La Nina event is now the strongest since 1999-2000. The lag between La Nina and the full global surface temperature response means that the cooling effect of La Nina is expected to be a little greater in 2008 than it was during 2007.
During La Nina, cold waters up well to cool large areas of the ocean and land surface temperatures.
The forecast includes, for the first time, a new decadal forecast using a climate model, which indicates that the current La Nina event will weaken only slowly through 2008, disappearing by the end of the year.
Prof Chris Folland from the Met Office Hadley Centre said:
"Phenomena such as El Nino and La Nina have a significant influence on global surface temperature and the current strong La Nina will act to limit temperatures in 2008.
However mean temperature is still expected to be significantly warmer than in 2000, when a similar strength La Nina pegged temperatures to 0.24 degree C above the 1961-90 average. Sharply renewed warming is likely once La Nina declines."
These cyclical influences can mask underlying warming trends with Prof Phil Jones, Director of the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, saying:
"The fact that 2008 is forecast to be cooler than any of the last seven years (and that 2007 did not break the record warmth set on 1998) does not mean that global warming has gone away.
What matters is the underlying rate of warming - the period 2001-2007 with an average of 0.44 degree C above the 1961-90 average was 0.21 degree C warmer than corresponding values for the period 1991-2000."
Further information
Met Office: Seasonal indications
Met Office Hadley Centre
Climate change projections
University of East Anglia (UEA) – Climate research unit
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
El Nino and La Nina
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